Economic factors influence net carbon emissions of forest bioenergy expansion

Abstract There is considerable concern that consuming forest biomass for energy will increase net carbon emissions from forests, which defined as debt. Using a market-based economic model, we test the effects of 51 demand pathways bioenergy on future stocks to assess likelihood incurring sustained debt lasting several decades. We show potential expansion, measured near-term decrease in sequestration relative baseline, occurs and persists only under specific set assumptions about accounting, markets, policies, demands. Finally, evaluate whether regulations restricting sourcing could influence scale and/or reduce time needed recover (payback period). similar absence direct imposing limits supply likely payback period but does not avoid initial